North Carolina U.S. Congressional Model (version 7)
January 2020
PlanScore bases its scores on predicted precinct-level votes for North Carolina U.S. Congressional races built from past election results and U.S. Census data. To predict future major-party results, we compare precinct-level results from 2018 U.S. Congressional races with the 2016 Clinton/Trump presidential election. This model includes predictions for open seat races as well as major-party incumbents, if provided. The incumbency predictions for Republicans are incorrect in this version.
We obtained all results from North Carolina’s State Board of Elections and entered them into our ordinary least squares regression model:
Browse model code and data on Github.