January 2020
PlanScore bases its scores on predicted precinct-level votes for Null Island Parliamentary races built from past election results and National Census data. To predict future major-party results, we compare precinct-level results from 2016 Parliamentary races with the 2016 Kang/Kodos presidential election.
We obtained results from OpenElections and entered them into our ordinary least squares regression model. This model assumes a uniform ±5% vote swing with incumbent-party candidates.